Substitution benefits of British Columbia’s mitigation strategies in the bioeconomy

Abstract Globally, efforts to increase land sector contributions net-zero emissions are pursued. Harvested wood products may retain carbon, and substitute emission-intensive products. The emission reductions achieved through substitution, or substitution benefits, can inform the design of climate-effective wood-use strategies. Mitigation analyses a wood-based bioeconomy therefore need include evaluate mitigation outcomes across sectors. Substitution benefits be estimated using displacement factors, which quantify avoided per unit use. Here, we calculated factors timber constructions wood-derived biofuels around 1.03 0.45 tCO 2 e/tCO e, respectively. Assuming was when changes in human behavior increased share use relative reference market share, added previous analysis that focused on biogenic British Columbia, Canada. At projected declining harvest rates, theoretical maximum reduction forest contribute over period 2016 2050 is 66 MtCO e·year −1 with an uncertainty range 45–79 , baseline, by focusing long-lived, high-displacement construction applications. However, because uses foreign markets not guaranteed, constrained access, practical strategy combines biofuel achieve 17.4 equivalent 30% Columbia’s target. Although transformation help both climate socio-economic potential conflict exists between maximizing regional global benefits. How where will used influence desired outcomes.